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20 January, 2007
For Scoresheet players ... the spreadsheet friendly lists are posted ...
NL ... AL
Playoffs ... Venezuela - Carlos Gonzalez ARZ 3-4, double, walk & 2-4, 2
doubles, .348 ... Mexico - Troy Cate STL 7.0 3 3 3 2 8, 1.29 ...
Puerto Rico - Erick Aybar LAA 3-5, .301 ... Carlos Ruiz
PHI 1-4, homer, 4 RBI, .309 ... Matt Kemp LAD 1-3, .254
Troop movements ... ATL - acquired LHP Mike Gonzalez, SS Brent
Lillibridge
from PIT for 1B Adam LaRoche
and OF Jamie Romak,
signed OF/1B Craig Wilson ... CHN - signed RHP Jeff
Samardzija to a five-year
contract ... CLE - signed OF Trot Nixon, designated RHP Jeremy
Guthrie for assignment ... TB - released RHP Shinji Mori
... TOR - claimed INF Ray Olmedo
off waivers from CIN, designated 2B Ryan Roberts for assignment
... COL - sold the contract of INF Luis Gonzalez to the Yomiuri
Giants ... WAS - outrighted INF/OF Tony Blanco to Triple-A ...
Kevin
Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus, checks in with a DET rookie preview :
" ... 1. Cameron Maybin ... On
sheer athleticism and tools, Maybin is the total package, with a brutal home
park hurting his nonetheless impressive numbers, as evidenced by road line of
.333/.416/.517. Excellent hand-eye coordination and big time raw power ...
Plus-plus runner who almost effortlessly covers the outfield from gap to gap and
has a strong arm ... lofty strikeout total ... will likely start the
year in the Florida State League, which means the power surge might have to wait
another year."
" ... 2. Andrew Miller ... 92-96
mph fastball has touched 98, while height and angular delivery add downward
plane and strong deception. Hard slider features depth and tilt, with late,
quick break out of the zone ... While Miller's stuff is there in every outing,
his control is not, and he clearly had problems finding his rhythm while coming
out of the bullpen during his big league debut. His changeup needs work ...
will likely be on the Justin Verlander plan, beginning the year in the Florida
State League and quickly moving up to Double-A once things warm up in the
Eastern League cities."
OK, outside of Daisuke Matsuzaka, who's your top rookie pitching pick?
Project Prospect
tries to sort it out :
" ... 2. Matt Garza ... had a
solid professional debut in 2005, throwing in Rookie ball then Single-A Beloit
and posting a strong WHIP of 1.02 and 1.21 at each level, respectively. The 2006
minor league campaign was even more impressive for Garza, as he pitched over
three levels before being called up to pitch for the Twins. During his stints at
High-A Fort Myers, Double-A New Britain, and Triple-A Rochester, Garza never had
a WHIP over 0.94 and put up a very impressive 154:33 strikeout to walk clip ...
Expect Garza to make a strong impact in the heart of the Twins rotation this
season."
" ... 3. Jason Hirsh ...
Standing at 6-foot-8 and weighing in at 250 pounds, Hirsh is a durable presence
on the mound in his own right. He also has experience in the bandbox that is
Minute Maid Park, arguably more claustrophobic than Coors Field. That said,
while a sure thing to get starts and innings, Hirsh is not a sure thing to
experience rip-roaring success ... Should he exhibit the control he demonstrated
in the minors he should be a fine. If his strikeout totals don’t improve,
though, Hirsh could struggle -- especially in a park like Coors."
If nothing else, the Cubs get a great component for their pickup flag football
games :
" ... Jeff Samardzija decided to give
up football and stay with baseball. The former Notre Dame receiver, projected as
a first-round pick in the upcoming NFL draft, agreed Friday to a $10 million,
five-year contract to pitch for the Chicago Cubs. "Baseball is my first love. I
played it my whole life," Samardzija said. A 21-year-old right-hander,
Samardzija was the Cubs' fifth-round pick in last year's amateur draft and had a
2.70 ERA in seven starts for their Class A teams at Boise and Peoria. He
returned to Notre Dame and helped the Irish make the Sugar Bowl, catching 78
passes for 1,017 yards as a senior." (AP)
USA Today adds
rookie reports for PHI and the White Sox ;
" ... Michael Bourn ...
might be the fastest player in the system, had 46 steals over the three levels
last year. The 5-11, 180-pounder has great range in the outfield. The Phillies
want him to be a leadoff hitter in the majors, though he struck out 102 times
last year. The Phillies believe that number will drop with experience. If he has
a strong showing in spring training, Bourn could make the major league squad. "
" ... Carlos Carrasco ... the
Phillies consider Carrasco, 19, their No. 1 pitching prospect right now. Signed
for $300,000 out of a Venezuelan tryout camp in 2003, the 6-3, 180-pounder
struggled the next two years before turning it around late in 2006 at low-A
Lakewood by going 12-6 with a 2.26 ERA in 26 starts ... fastball is in the
90-93 mph range and he has a good changeup and a solid curveball. He'll probably
start the season in Double-A."
" ... Ryan Sweeney ...
team sees him as a No. 3 hitter who can steal 10-15 bases and hit with power to
both gaps. He's a former pitcher who has above-average arm strength, and he's
athletic enough to play any of the three outfield positions, even though his
best potential could be either in left or right field. The White Sox like his
discipline and short right-handed stroke at the plate."
" ... Josh Fields ... With Joe
Crede anchored at third on the big team, Fields is in a tough position because
he has nothing left to prove in the minors. Crede has two seasons left before
becoming a free agent, so it's possible the White Sox could trade either one. In
his third professional season, Fields hit .305 with 19 home runs and 70 RBI at
Triple-A Charlotte in 2006."
John Sickels, MinorLeagueBall,
with a sneak peek at a shortstop sleeper :
" ... personal favorite, Brent Lillibridge
... like him a lot ... more power than most shortstops, plenty of speed ...
works the count well. I think he can hit .280 with above average power and
a good on-base percentage at higher levels ... error-prone ... good range, good
hands ... Grade B."
Over a RotoAmerica, David Regan is
busy working on the Top 20s. A few teams already posted :
" ... 1. Troy
Tulowitzki
... After 104 games at Double-A in 2006, Tulowitzki made it to the big
leagues where, despite poor overall numbers, he should be able to stick.
Probably the most impressive prospect I saw in the Arizona Fall League,
Tulowitzki is a solid defender with good hands and instincts in the field. At
the plate, he projects as a 20-homer guy with solid plate discipline. His
ceiling should be along the lines of .300/.375/.480, more than adequate for a
middle infielder. "
" ... 2. Ian Stewart ... this is
still a kid who will play all of next year in Double-A and/or Triple-A at the
tender age of 22. His career minor league line: .2992/.373/.523. Very
impressive. It may just be a matter of getting (and staying) healthy, as Stewart
has struggled with hamstring and wrist injuries in recent years, something that
certainly suppresses power. The decline in his walk rate (11.4% (2004) to 9.5%
in 2006) is somewhat concerning, but it’s still an acceptable number. The 41
doubles and seven triples in 2006 point out that he is still getting good wood
on the ball, but perhaps due to his physical ailments, the ball just isn’t going
as far. For 2007, the presence of Garrett Atkins at 3B has led to much
speculation that the Rockies will try Stewart in the outfield and potentially
deal Brad Hawpe. Stewart certainly has the potential for a breakout 2007, but
it’s hard to know what to expect from him anymore."
" ... 1. Kevin
Kouzmanoff
... a pure hitter. Though he entered 2006 hitting .315, no one could have
forsaw what he did to minor and major league pitching this past year. After
batting .389 in the Eastern League and .353 in Triple-A, Kouzmanoff would up
just one point short of the overall minor league batting title ... has an
innate ability to work the count, wait for his pitch, and hit it with authority.
His bat should have no problem producing as a big leaguer. There are a few
strikes against him that bring down his overall prospect ranking however. He’s a
below-average runner, has to work hard to be adequate at third base, and he’s a
bit old at 25."
" ... 3. Cedric Hunter ... had a
fantastic pro debut for the Padres, but he’s only 18. Hunter shows a great
aptitude at the plate for working the count, as reflected in his nearly 2/1 BB/K
ratio ... Scouts are divided on his ability to handle centerfield, and a move to
a corner for a guy who will never have average power wouldn’t be good for
Hunter’s prospect status. He’s probably best-suited as a #2 hitter batting in
front of some big boppers."
17 January, 2007
Venezuela playoffs - Carlos Gonzalez ARZ 1-4, double & 1-4, 3 RBI,
homer, .273 ... Alberto Callaspo ARZ 2-3, double & 1-4, .298 ...
Dominican - Jose Capellan MIL 4.0 6 2 2 2 4 ... Edinson
Volquez TEX 1.1 4 3 3 0 2
Troop movements ... PHI - claimed infielder Greg Dobbs off waivers
from SEA ...
Kevin
Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus, ranks the best of the CLE farm :
" ... 1. Adam Miller ... by the
end of the year he had firmly re-established himself among the top righty
prospects in the game. Loss of arm strength forced him to focus on control and
secondary pitches, and when his fastball returned he was a much more
well-rounded pitcher with a low-to-mid 90s sinking fastball, hard slider, and
changeup that gives him a full three-pitch arsenal ... All the stuff is
there for Miller to be an ace if he can find greater consistency ...
will begin the year at Triple- A, but the Indians expect him to force a big
league decision as early as the All-Star break."
" ... 3. Trevor Crowe ...
Quintessential leadoff man has every skill it takes to bat at the top of the
order, including compact line-drive stroke and good contact skills, a patient
approach, and fantastic base running skills. Understands his role and plays
within himself to go along with top-of-the-line makeup and fundamentals ... has
limited range in centerfield, leaving most scouts to project a move to left. His
power is limited, and while his skill set fits well for the 1980s version of the
position, it doesn't profile will as the modern corner outfielder ... With Grady
Sizemore providing MVP-level production in center, a pure leadoff man in left is
the kind of non-standard decision the Indians can afford to make."
Jared
Massey, RotoAmerica, checks in with a look at some likely 2007 breakout
candidates.
" ... 1. Daisuke Matsuzaka ...
Red Sox have high hopes for their new starting pitcher heading into the 2007
season. Armed with both a major league fastball and a major league breaking
ball, "Dice-K" is a workhorse who proved he can bulldoze through quality lineups
in his MVP performance during the inaugural World Baseball Classic. Matsuzaka is
a lock for 200+ innings, as well as high strikeout totals, low walks and
Homeruns allowed, and an ERA of under 4.00."
" ... 5. Phillip Hughes ...
Called "Prior Lite" by some scouts, Hughes mixes his low 90s fastball and plus
secondary offerings with deft command and control. While his age may keep him
out of New York's rotation early in the season, Hughes should definitely make it
to the bigs before long to replace the recently traded Randy Johnson."
Oh man, not again :
" ... Troubled Devil Rays prospect Elijah Dukes
was charged with misdemeanor marijuana possession after a traffic stop in Tampa
on Monday night. Tampa police stopped Dukes and a passenger, Willie Evans, for a
loud music violation and, according to police, officers noted "a distinct odor
of marijuana" coming from inside the 2006 Dodge Charger. After searching the
vehicle, police found what they said was less than two grams of marijuana in the
center console." (St. Petersburg Times)
Adam Foster, Project
Prospect, looks a a few who just missed his Top 100 :
" ... Kurt Suzuki ... owns
a .386 on-base clip over the course of his 992 at-bat professional career (616
low-level at-bats; 376 Double-A at-bats). Expect the 5-foot-11, 200-pounder to
force Oakland to strongly consider parting ways with Jason Kendall after his
contract expires in 2007. Suzuki likely won’t ever be a 20+ home run guy, but he
could get on base enough to maintain an 800+ OPS."
" ... Chris Parmelee ... could
emerge as an elite talent. The 6-foot-1, 200-pound lefty hit .273/.369/.500 in
176 at-bats between Rookie ball and Single-A last season. If he moves at an
Andrew McCutchen pace, Parmelee could be a big leaguer by 2008. By then, the
California native may already have 20+ home run power to go along with .370 OBP
potential."
John Sickels, MinorLeagueBall,
with another example of why SEA is in such difficulty.
" ... There is a reason why baseball is the hardest
sport for which to develop players. Tuiasosopo was a terrific high
school quarterback, and would have done well in college ... but he played
baseball instead, and right now it looks like he may have made the wrong
decision ... swing is weakish for a big guy ... strike zone judgment is below
average ... no longer has enough range to play shortstop ... still young enough
to figure something out, but at this point I'm wondering if maybe they should
move him to the pitchers mound to take advantage of his strong arm? I just
don't see him hitting."
Keith
Law, ESPN, on Alex Gordon KC :
" ... Gordon is something of a left-handed Lance
Berkman. He has a compact swing and has plus power, partly a function of his
swing and partly a function of his raw strength. He uses the whole field well,
with excellent plate discipline and plate coverage. His peak should approach
Mike Sweeney's, and perhaps even surpass it in the power department. He jumped
directly from college to Double-A, unusual even for top college players, and
didn't miss a beat, hitting for average and power while showing good patience
and even some baserunning skills."
Jim Callis,
Baseball America, updates his report on a pair of 2003 draftees - Kyle
Sleeth and Tim Stauffer :
" ... Sleeth and Stauffer were the top pitching
prospects in the 2003 draft ... injuries have derailed their careers and
neither looks like he'll reach the promise they once showed. Sleeth got rocked
once he reached Double-A in the second half of his 2004 pro debut, and the
Tigers decided to modify his delivery ... he blew out his elbow shortly
after modifying his mechanics. He worked just 37 innings this year and is still
trying to regain the mid-90s fastball and quality breaking stuff he had at Wake
Forest. Shortly after getting drafted, Stauffer had an MRI that revealed
weakness in his shoulder ... .He hasn't had the same velocity or life on his
pitches in pro ball that he had at Richmond, greatly reducing his effectiveness.
Stauffer went 7-12, 5.53 at Triple-A Portland this year and has gone 4-6, 5.07
in parts of two big league seasons."
13 January, 2007
For Scoresheet players ... the 2007 lists of players are expected to be posted
on the Scoresheet site Tuesday night (Jan 16th).
Playoffs - Venezuela ... Angel Guzman CHN 4.2 4 1 1 1 2 ... Tony
Armas 5.0 5 2 2 3 6. Dominican ... catcher Carlos Ruiz
PHI 4-5, 4 RBI ... Matt Kemp LAD 2-5, triple. Puerto Rico
... Bill Pulsipher 9.00 1 1 1 1 4 ... Casey Kotchman
LAA 3-8, walk so far in two games. Mexico ... Karim Garcia
PHI NRI 4-5, double, homer
Jonathan
Mayo, MLB.com, with some notes on Winter Ball performances :
" ... Willy Aybar, Braves: The infielder may
have made an early case for Atlanta's second base job by hitting .303 over 33
games for Licey in the Dominican. Drawing 16 walks for a .381 OBP doesn't hurt,
either."
" ... Carlos Gonzalez, Diamondbacks:
One of the top bats in Arizona's farm system, Gonzalez led the Venezuelan Winter
League with a .530 slugging percentage. The outfielder hit .318 with nine homers
and 41 RBIs to help Zulia reach the playoffs."
" ... Alex Romero, Twins: Still just
23, Romero turned it around after a rough Triple-A debut in 2006. He finished
second in Venezuela with a .345 average, third in hits with 70, fourth with a
.419 OBP while also stealing eight bases for Aragua."
" ... Nick Masset, White Sox: Closing
for Mazatlan, Masset finished second in Mexico with 15 saves in 17
opportunities. Hitters hit .228 against him and he struck out 22 while walking
just two in 20 2/3 innings. Look for Masset to be a factor in the White Sox
bullpen in 2007."
Troop movements ... WAS - signed RHP Jerome Williams ... SF
- announced the retirement of Tim Worrell ... BOS - signed RHP Kyle
Snyder ... BAL - re-signed RHP Todd Williams ... COL - acquired RHP
Rodrigo Lopez from BAL for RHP Jim Miller and RHP
Jason Burch ... NYA - announced the retirement of Jeff Nelson
... TEX - Rangers acquired catcher Chris Stewart from CHA RHP John
Lujan, designated Drew Meyer for assignment ... NYA -
Phil Hughes, Jose Tabata among those with ST invitations (check out
David Farr's complete list) ...
Kevin
Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus, continues his impressive run of prospect
reports with a look at the White Sox farm, recently bolstered by the trade with
Texas :
" ... 1. John Danks ... Young
lefthander found success at Triple-A thanks to effective three-pitch mix.
Curveball is best offering, but fastball also has plus velocity for a southpaw,
sitting at 90-92 mph. Changeup is more than just usable, and projects as a third
plus pitch ... fastball can be a little too true and he has a tendency to work
high in the zone, which has led to an elevated home run rate ... By
trading Brandon McCarthy, White Sox GM Kenny Williams gained a new No. 1
prospect, but left a hole at the bottom of the rotation that Danks is not ready
to step into, according to most. Still, the White Sox feel he'll provide much
greater long-term value."
" ... 3. Josh Fields ...
breakout season at Triple-A. Surprisingly well-rounded set of tools including
plus power, above-average speed and excellent arm at the hot corner ... a
sloppy defender, but it's more an issue of fundamentals, and nobody thinks he
needs to move. Power-only swing is a bit long, and his strikeout rate will
likely always be high ... blocked for two more years by Crede, but that
doesn't mean he's not going to play in the majors. With Kenny Williams, a trade
is always possible, as is a switch to the outfield if he returns to Triple-A."
Over at
Baseball America, it's the woeful Washingtons on tap :
1. Collin Balester, rhp 6. Zech Zinicola, rhp
2. Chris Marrero, of 7. Glenn Gibson, lhp
3. Colton Willems, rhp 8. Matt Chico, lhp
4. Kory Casto, 3b/of 9. Stephen King, ss
5. Esmailyn Gonzalez, ss 10. Ian Desmond, ss
John Sickels, MinorLeagueBall,
offers a couple of the entries from his
2007 Prospect Book, (shipping this month) one of them Kory Casto
:
" ... Casto made a successful Double-A transition
last year, maintaining his power production and strong plate discipline in his
first look at advanced pitching. He has a sound swing that produces power
to all fields ... a decent third baseman, but the presence of Ryan Zimmerman ...
means he doesn't have a place to play at the hot corner. He has seen some
action in the outfield, where his range is limited but his strong arm is an
asset. Casto is not young as prospects to, which limits his potential, but
I think he will have a good career if they give him a chance. Grade B."
Project Prospect
(such a nice addition to the prospecting ranks) checks in with their
picks as the best of the rookie outfield candidates for the coming season.
A pretty young-looking top of the list :
" ... 1. Delmon Young ... grew
up idolizing Vladimir Guerrero, a player who he could someday match talent-wise
– he already has the arm. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2003 draft, Young put up
.316/.341./.447 vitals in 342 at-bats at Triple-A Durham only to better himself
with .328/.349/.492 vitals in 122 at-bats with the Devil Rays. Young’s weakness
to inside fastballs shows in his 0.246 Triple-A and 0.043 MLB walk-to-strikeout
ratios, but it’s pretty tough to find any other holes in his game. The 6-foot-3,
205-pounder will be a frontrunner for the 2007 Rookie of the Year Award."
" ... 2. Chris Young ...
His .276/.363/.532 line brought him from Triple-A Tucson across the desert to
Phoenix by the middle of August. He was on the verge of going 20/20 in Tucson
before he was called up, with 20 home runs to go along with 17 steals in 22
attempts (77.3%). In line for a starting job in 2007, Young looks like a very
special talent."
And,
USA Today offers its latest update, a report on the Angels including a
rookie section:
" ... Brandon Wood ... heads a
star-studded farm system that is deep in shortstops ... phenomenal the
last two seasons, hitting a minor league franchise record 43 homers with 370
total bases in 2005 and 25 homers while leading the Double-A Texas League with
71 extra-base hits last year. He's projected as a middle-of-the-order run
producer with plenty of power. Defensively, he's sound with a strong arm and
good footwork. His only real weakness is his alarming strikeout total."
" ... Nick Adenhart ...
certainly showed he's fully recovered from his 2004 Tommy John surgery. He had a
fabulous year and was ranked as the Midwest League's best prospect ...
10-2 with a 1.95 ERA in 16 starts at low-A Cedar Rapids, striking out 99 in 106
innings. He held his own at high-A Rancho Cucamonga, going 5-2 with a 3.78 ERA
in nine starts. The 6-4 Adenhart throws a 92- to 94-mph fastball and has an
above-average circle changeup with a curveball. He's an aggressive pitcher with
a good delivery. He has trouble with his release point, but there are no
concerns. He may open the year at Double-A Arkansas and in 2008 could be in the
big leagues, where he is projected to be a front-line starter."
John Sickels, MinorLeagueBall,
has high praise for a Padres outfield prospect :
" ... Cedric Hunter ... I love this guy, and
he could be one of the steals of the 2006 draft ... has a terrific bat ...
controls the strike zone exceptionally well. He may not hit a ton of home
runs, but he could very well win batting titles someday if he maintains his
current approach ... will need a bit of time to develop, but I really, REALLY
like this bat, and I regard this Grade B rating as conservative."
Also see Kevin Goldstein's
Hunter review below.
Nice work Dan Szymborski ! The 2007
ZiPs projections are now complete and available for download as an Excel
file.
11 January, 2007
Venezuelan playoffs - Richard Hidalgo 2-5, 5th playoff homer, .400.
Dominican - Randy Leek 9.0 4 1 1 2 6, 3.44 ... Edinson
Volquez TEX 3.1 5 6 3 2 6, 10.29
Troop movements ... CIN - acquired INF Jeff Keppinger from KC for RHP
Russ Haltiwanger; designated INF Ray Olmedo for
assignment ... STL - resigned LHP Mark Mulder, signed Ryan
Franklin ...
Baseball
America picks the best of the PHI system
1. Carlos Carrasco, rhp 6. Josh Outman, lhp
2. Kyle Drabek, rhp 7. Michael Bourn, of
3. Adrian Cardenas, ss/2b 8. J.A. Happ, lhp
4. Edgar Garcia, rhp 9. Matt Maloney, lhp
5. Scott Mathieson, rhp 10. Greg Golson, of
Kudos again to David Farr for taking charge of the
NRI list.
A long shot to be sure, but who knows?
" ... Josh Hamilton played in only 15
minor league games last season after returning from the suspended list, but the
outfielder hasn't turned to winter ball to get back up to speed. Hamilton,
acquired by the Reds in a Rule 5 draft trade, has been going through a workout
regimen at home with occasional visits from Reds manager Jerry Narron, a fellow
North Carolina native. "He's working out down in North Carolina," said Krivsky.
"Jerry's been with him a few times. He's got a workout program, plus he's doing
a lot of hitting, throwing and running." (The Cincinnati Post)
10 January, 2007
Venezuela playoffs ... Gregor Blanco ATL 3-4, walk ... Richard
Hidalgo 1-3, walk
Dominican playoffs ... Kendry Morales LAA 2-4, walk ... Jose
Capellan MIL 4.1 6 4 3 1 3, 3.52
Troop movements ... COL - signed catcher Javy Lopez ... TOR - signed RHP
Jason Frasor, RHP John Thomson, designated INF
Rob Cosby for assignment ... SF - signed RHP Russ Ortiz
Clay Buchholz gets the red carpet treatment as
Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus, checks out the best of the Red Sox
farm :
" ... 1. Clay Buchholz ... Every part
of game took a step forward in 2006. Fastball bumped up from low-to-mid 90s,
curveball moved into plus status, changeup remained outstanding as ever and
control got better. Added all up, this is a tremendous leap ... He's
yet to really be tested, and some would like to see him put a few pounds on to
help his stamina ... During trade talks in the offseason, most teams were
asking about Buchholz over anyone else, and he seems to be unavailable on any
level. The Red Sox might skip him to Double-A to avoid the California League."
" ... 3. Michael Bowden ... Nice combination
of size and skill. 89-92 mph fastball is brought up a grade for Bowden's ability
to command the pitch, and his curveball gives him a second plus offering.
Big-bodied and maintains his stuff well into the later innings ... Scouts
don't like his multi-stage delivery and would like to see smoother mechanics ...
two years younger than Buchholz and not as polished a product, so the Red Sox
will take it a little slower with him."
John Sickels, MinorLeagueBall,
offers a revised Yankee Top 20 with the major change the slotting of Humberto
Sanchez at No. 3 and the addition of the kids from Arizona in the bottom
half.
1 Hughes Phil RHP 6 Betances Dellin RHP
2 Tabata Jose OF 7 Cox J-Brent RHP
3 Sanchez Humberto RHP 8 Kontos George RHP
4 Chamberlain Joba RHP 9 Garcia Christian RHP
5 Clippard Tyler RHP 10 Kennedy Ian RHP
Dan Szymborski has the Rangers projection posted at
Baseball Think Factory. Just a couple left to go.
09 January, 2007
Venezuelan playoffs ... Wil Ledezma DET still having a rough time 0.1 0
1 1 4 0 ... Richard Hidalgo FA, nice late season surge, .409 in
the playoffs, 2-5, 4th homer
Dominican playoffs ... Matt Kemp LAD 2-4, .242 ... Kendry
Morales LAA 4-4, double, 2 homers, 6 RBI, .412 ... Fabio Castro
PHI 5.0 1 1 1 2 5, 1.29
Mexican playoffs ... nice little streak for Adrian Gonzalez
SD 2-5 & 2-3, 2 homers & 3-4, double, homer, .364
Puerto Rican playoffs just getting underway ... Bruce Chen the leading
pitcher during the regular season, 0.72 in 50 innings, 19 hits, 8 walks, 59
strikeouts.
Troop movements ... ARZ - appears ready to re-acquire Randy Johnson from
NYA for Luis Vizcaino, pitching prospects Ross Ohlendorf
and Steven Jackson, plus Minor League shortstop Alberto
Gonzalez. John Sickels
has the dope on the prospects moving to the Yankees.
Dan Szymborski, Baseball
Think Factory, whips through more of the ZiPs projections with San Diego,
San Francisco, Seattle, St. Louis and Tampa Bay. Looks like just a couple of
teams left - WAS, TOR, TEX.
Mike Pelfrey tops the phenom OFs in the Mets Top 10 at
Baseball America :
1. Mike Pelfrey, rhp 6. Kevin Mulvey, rhp
2. Fernando Martinez, of 7. Jon Niese, lhp
3. Carlos Gomez, of 8. Mike Carp, 1b
4. Philip Humber, rhp 9. Joe Smith, rhp
5. Deolis Guerra, rhp 10. Alay Soler, rhp
Jim Callis,
Baseball America, makes his picks as the best of the under-25 guys :
1. Joe Mauer, c, Twins 1. Felix Hernandez, rhp, Mariners
2. Miguel Cabrera, 3b, Marlins 2. Matt Cain, rhp, Giants
3. David Wright, 3b, Mets 3. Scott Kazmir, lhp, Devil Rays
4. Grady Sizemore, of, Indians 4. Jeremy Bonderman, rhp, Tigers
5. Jose Reyes, ss, Mets 5. Justin Verlander, rhp, Tigers
Project
Prospect, fresh off its initial Top 100, checks out the best of the 3B
rookies for 2007. Of course, Alex Gordon tops the list, with a pretty
good one as the runnerup :
" ... 2. Andy LaRoche ... Brandon Wood’s
extra-base hit partner in crime for the first half of 2005 – LaRoche
finished the year with 57 (30 home runs) – LaRoche dealt with labrum tears
in both shoulders during the 2006 season, sapping some of his power. Still,
the 6-foot-1, 215-pounder put up a .315/.410/.514 combined line between
Double-A Jacksonville and Triple-A Las Vegas ... has all-star potential.
Look for him to hit around .300 with 25-30 home runs in his prime."
For an interesting piece on Alex Gordon check out
Jason Collette,
RotoJunkie. Jason also has some valuable files with the final
minor league stats for 2006.
David Cameron has updated his
SEA Future Forty.
Looks like Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow, Jeff Clement 1-2-3.
07 January, 2007
Updates to 40-man rosters ...
Top 10s ... Top
100s ... Crossovers ...
NRIs (many thanks to David Farr for continuing to
update the list ...
Troop movements - FLO - signed OF Chad Hermansen ... SF -
designated catcher Justin Knoedler for assignment ...
USA Today adds some more prospect charts as it wends its way through all the
organizations:
" ... Adam Lind ... Next in line for a shot
at a major league job, Lind has never hit below .310 at any level since Toronto
drafted him in the third round in 2004. The left-handed hitter, who could
compete for the left field job in 2007, has increased his power output every
year and hit 26 homers last season combined at Double-A New Hampshire, Triple-A
Syracuse and Toronto. At 23, he's moved quickly through the system, playing
short-season ball in 2004, jumping to high-A the next year and getting to the
majors last season. He hit .367 in 60 at-bats with Toronto."
" ... Francisco Rosario .. At
26, this could be the year to pitch himself into a major-league rotation. He's
had a season and a half at Triple-A and got his first taste of the majors last
season, mostly in relief ... he's now more than two years removed from
Tommy John surgery and his velocity and stamina have returned. Whether he can
maintain his command will determine Rosario's future."
" ... Homer Bailey ... finished
the season as one of the top pitching prospects in the minor leagues. He
combined to go 10-6 with a 2.47 ERA in 26 starts, 13 each at single-A Sarasota
and Double-A Chattanooga ... throws mainly fastballs, and the Reds need
him to work on his changeup and curveball so he's comfortable enough to throw
them at any time in the count. Bailey has one of the best fastballs in the
minors and had 28 walks in 68 innings for the Lookouts. The Reds aren't setting
a timetable for Bailey to get to the big leagues. They said they don't want to
rush him, so he'll probably start next season at Triple-A Louisville."
" ... Jay Bruce ...
selected in the first round, 12th overall in the June 2005 draft, put up
impressive numbers for single-A Dayton in the Midwest League, hitting .291 with
16 home runs, 81 RBI and 19 stolen bases. The Reds like his makeup and maturity
and expect him to move fast in the organization. He plays excellent defense, has
a strong arm and hits with power to all fields."
06 January, 2007
Venezuelan playoffs ... Richard Hidalgo 4-4, 3 homers ... Carlos
Gonzalez ARZ 3-5, double ...
Troop movements ... BAL - signed RHP Daniel Cabrera ... PHI -
claimed RHP Anderson Garcia off waivers from BAL ... SEA - signed
RHP Chris Reitsma ... OAK - signed catcher Adam Melhuse
... TEX - signed 2B-OF Jerry Hairston Jr. ... NYN - signed INF-OF
David Newhan ...
Jim
Albright, The Japanese Insider, checks in with a notes on the 2007 Japanese
imports, including Bostton's big catch :
Daisuke Matsuzaka
YEAR G W L SV IP H HR BB K R ER ERA
2002 16 4 4 0 85.0 75 19 19 80 43 37 3.92
2003 34 13 10 0 224.1 205 19 78 220 111 97 3.89
2004 28 9 7 0 177.2 166 11 55 137 88 77 3.90
2005 33 17 10 0 250.2 216 19 61 233 105 90 3.23
2006 29 15 7 0 217.1 173 19 43 206 80 66 2.73
" ... The biggest fish among the major league
imports this year. If it weren't for the abusive way he was used in the past two
seasons, I'd have few reservations about him beyond the standard ones for
pitchers. However, he averaged 144 pitches per game in 2005 and "eased off" to
138 per game in 2006. It seems his arm has survived that abuse, but I hate to
see that kind of thing in any pitcher's history. He probably won't do quite as
well as the projection, which is to a neutral major league park rather than to
Fenway, but he's definitely got the potential to be in the low 3's in ERA
there."
Pitching dominates the FLO Top 10 at
Baseball America :
1. Chris Volstad, rhp 6. Taylor Tankersley, lhp
2. Brett Sinkbeil, rhp 7. Aaron Thompson, lhp
3. Gaby Hernandez, rhp 8. Ryan Tucker, rhp
4. Sean West, lhp 9. Chris Coghlan, 3b/2b
5. Gaby Sanchez, 1b/c 10. Kris Harvey, of
Kevin
Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus, highlights the top kids in the BAL play-pen:
" ... 1. Brandon Erbe ... Prototypical
power pitcher dominated in full-season debut thanks primarily to a 92-95 mph
tailing fastball; Erbe touches 96-98 several occasions every time out. His
projectable body has scouts putting him in the mid-to-upper 90s once his body
matures. Slider has potential to be a plus pitch, and shows some feel for a
change. Intelligence and maturity beyond his years ... Slider is inconsistent,
as Erbe has a tendency to overthrow it, turning it into a pitch that sweeps
across the plate on a single plane. Changeup is still very much a work in
progress and not a usable third pitch yet. Many scouts have expressed concerns
about his mechanics, specifically how he throws across his body ... Orioles have
no reason to rush him and will continue to be cautious with his workload."
" ... 2. Bill Rowell ... First high
school hitter selected in '06 draft didn't disappoint in pro debut, showing a
good approach and plus power, with just three home runs in 195 at-bats mitigated
by 19 doubles. Massive physical presence who uses his lower half to generate
tremendous leverage in his swing. Excellent hand/eye coordination should allow
him to hit for average as well ... moved from shortstop to third base after
signing, but was awful there and will likely need to slide over to first base
sooner than later."
05 January, 2007
Troop movements ... BOS - signed RHP Joel Pineiro ... CLE - signed RHP
Keith Foulke, designated RHP Brian Sikorski for assignment ... HOU - signed INF
Mark Loretta ... BAL - signed 1B-OF Aubrey Huff ... CHN - signed LHP
Neal Cotts
... KC - designated INF Jeff Keppinger for assignment ... CIN - traded INF
Brendan Harris to TB for PTBNL ... FLO - signed INF Aaron
Boone ...
SF - designated C Justin Knoedler for assignment. signed LHP Barry
Zito ... LAA
- designated RHP Chris Bootcheck for assignment ... NYA - pending a physical,
signed Doug Mientkiewicz ...
And here she goes ... the first annual Top 100 from the fine folks at
Project
Prospect. Check it out !
Delmon Young ("MLB's next five-tool stud is in line
for a big league job; could be a 30/30 man"), Alex Gordon
("40 HR potential and should get a good chunk of 2007 playing time") and
Daisuke Matsuzaka ("Instant ace or No. 2, he's the least risky
pitching "prospect" in the game)" 1-2-3.
Among those who might be disappointed ... owners of Daric
Barton (#48) and Ian Stewart (#53)
Kevin
Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus, rates the best of the Washington farm :
" ... 1. Chris Marrero ... Plus-plus raw
power thanks to excellent bat speed, with power coming from much-desired natural
loft as opposed to any sort of pronounced uppercut. Plus arm and excellent
makeup ... moved to left field, where he remains raw, but has the
athleticism to become decent ...Like most power hitters, he's prone to
strikeouts, and needs to improve his approach against pro lefties ... there is
much work to be done. Marrero will begin the year at Low Class A."
" ...2. Collin Balester ... Despite
pitching well at Double-A in late-season look, the tall, skinny righty still
offers plenty of projection and is just 20 years old. 90-94 mph fastball has
good movement and hard curveball can be a plus pitch at times ... is still in
need of a third pitch, and while his change-up has nice arm action, it will only
improve if he throws it more, which he's reluctant to do in game situations. The
organization blames his early struggles on mechanical issues, which they claim
have been straightened out ... Washington thinks he's very close to taking off."
Baseball
America is back with the ATL Top 10 :
1. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, c 6. Eric Campbell, 3b
2. Elvis Andrus, ss 7. Scott Thorman, 1b/of
3. Matt Harrison, lhp 8. Jo-Jo Reyes, lhp
4. Brandon Jones, of 9. Joey Devine, rhp
5. Van Pope, 3b 10. Yunel Escobar, inf
And, John Sickels keeps rollin' along with the TEX, SD and PIT prospect
reviews:
1. Eric Hurley, RHP 6. Wes Littleton, RHP
2. Thomas Diamond, RHP 7. Taylor Teagarden, C
3. John Mayberry Jr, OF 8. Chad Tracy, C
4. Edinson Volquez, RHP 9. Jason Botts, 1B
5. Kasey Kiker, LHP 10. Nelson Cruz
" ... Hurley,
RHP, Grade A- (I like him better than Danks right now) ... Diamond, RHP,
Grade B (Status has slipped a bit but still interesting)"
1. Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B 6. Chad Huffman, 2B
2. Cesar Carrillo, RHP 7. Nick Hundley, , C
3. Cedric Hunter, OF 8. Will Venable, OF
4. Chase Headley, 3B 9. Kyle Blanks, 1B
5. Matt Antonelli, 3B 10. Paul McAnulty
" ...
Kouzmanoff, 3B, Grade B (love this bat, defense and age preclude B+)...
Hunter, OF, B (major sleeper from '06 draft)"
1. Andrew McCutchen, OF 6. Mike Felix, LHP
2. Brad Lincoln, RHP 7. Todd Redmond, RHP
3. Brent Lillibridge, SS 8. Josh Sharpless, RHP
4. Neil Walker, C 9. Yoslan Herrera, RHP
5. Brian Bixler, INF 10. Shelby Ford, 3B
" ...
McCutchen,
OF, Grade A- (Made huge progress last year, doing well in Double-A in his
first full season) ... Lillibridge,
SS, B (Watch this guy, he could be really good) ... Walker
C, B- (Starting to look overrated to me)."
31 December, 2006
Dominican - playoffs ... Kendry Morales 1-4, homer ... Matt
Kemp 0-3
Venezuela - Miguel Montero ARZ 3-5, 8th double & 1-4, walk & 1-4,
.248 ... Wil Ledezma DET 4 5 5 5 2 2 & 2 2/3 7 5 4 0 3,
13.50 ... Carlos Gonzalez ARZ 1-2, walk & 2-4 & 2-4, .323
... Angel Guzman CHN 5 4 0 0 1 4, 3.18 ... Franklin
Gutierrez CLE 2-4, double, .282 ... Tony Armas WAS 4 3 1 1 2
3, 2.35 ... Chris Begg SF 5 4 0 0 1 4, 1.08
Troop movements ... TEX - signed C Guillermo Quiroz ... FLO - signed 3B
Aaron Boone ... SF - signed LHP Barry Zito ... LAA -
signed 1B Shea Hillenbrand ...
Kevin Goldstein, Baseball
Prospectus, reviews the SD and SF farms.
SD " ... 3. Cedric Hunter ...
Draft: 3rd round, 2006 ... Pro debut was one of the very best among any
draftees. Advanced approach was even better than advertised, as Hunter showed
excellent pitch recognition, a quick bat, and the ability to hit all kinds of
pitches to all fields ... Not a ton of ceiling. Swing and body aren't
designed for power, and he's probably not a center fielder when all is said and
done. The leaves him an odd fit as a corner outfielder whose primary skill is
getting on-base ... There's a lot to be enthused about, but curb it a little."
SF " ... 1. Tim Lincecum ...
could have pitched out of the Giants bullpen at the end of 2006, but the team
decided against it for a variety of reasons. He'll likely start 2007 at
Double-A, and could be in the majors as early as the All-Star break."
SF " ... 2. Angel Villalona ...
Signed a contract three days after his 16th birthday that included a $2.1
million bonus ... Absolute man-child and the top international prospect of
the year. Already has plus-plus power to all fields and advanced pitch
recognition. Good fielder with soft hands and a plus arm. Even an above-average
runner ... At his age and his size, he could easily outgrow third base,
but he's athletic enough where the backup plan is right field instead of first
base ... The sky is the limit, though Villalona is still on the ground. Whispers
of the next Miguel Cabrera are understandable at this point."
Jim Callis,
Baseball America, on John Danks or Brandon McCarthy?
" ... In actuality, McCarthy and Danks are
very similar. They both throw two-seam and four-seam fastballs and top out at
93-94 mph, they both have good curveballs and they both have made a lot of
progress with changeups. McCarthy has a slightly better curve, while Danks has a
slightly better changeup. Their command and control are about the same ...
I think they're both No. 3 starters. If I had my pick, I'd take Danks because
he's two years younger (21 vs. 23) and he's lefthanded ... However, because
McCarthy has spent parts of the last two seasons getting acclimated to the
majors, he's a better bet to make a contribution at that level in 2007 and 2008
than Danks, who has yet to make his big league debut."
Project
Prospect, looking solely at the coming season, moves on to check out the
possibilities for rookie shortstops.
" ... It took Troy Tulowitzki a mere
126 games to show the Colorado Rockies’ brass that he was ready to become the
teams’ starting shortstop. The 6-foot-3, 210-pounder played 22 games at High-A
Modesto in his first season as a pro, pounding out 10 extra base-hits to go
along with a solid .343 OBP, resulting in a .457 slugging percentage. The fast
start led Tulowitzki, 21, to begin the 2006 campaign at Double-A Tulsa, where he
hit 34 doubles and 13 homers, producing a .473 SLG to go with a .370 on-base
clip. He never played a Triple-A game as his performance at Tulsa sent him
straight to the Rockies’ dugout. Tulowitzki has developed a reputation as both a
threat at the dish and as a smooth-fielding shortstop. Expect him to maintain
his steady approach on both ends during his rookie season in the big leagues."
Earlier,
Koby Schellenger
penned a piece on the Brewers' future 3B Ryan Braun :
" ... Not only does Braun have the tools and
vital line to succeed at the major league level, he has the peripherals to
indicate sustainable – if not improvable – numbers ... With an overload of
infielders for 2007, the Milwaukee Brewers will likely assign Braun to Triple-A
Nashville to start the season. But with the oft-injured Cory Koskie and veteran
and light hitting Tony Graffanino, Braun could be looking at a call-up sometime
in 2007. When he is inserted as the Brewers starting third baseman, look for
monster numbers. He’ll likely be looked at as a third hitter in the lineup with
definite 30/30 potential. There is little doubt he’ll be able to blast 30 home
runs and he certainly has the speed. The biggest question will be whether or not
he will be in a position to attempt 35 steals. He is definitely capable of a
.320/.375/.550 line. Braun’s unique blend of tools, talent, and potential make
him one of the premier prospects in baseball and a fun player to watch."
Adam Foster at Project Prospect advises the Top
100 should be posted January 3rd so check 'em out.
USA Today has
posted a few new team reports, including rookie sections.
ATL " ... Elvis Andrus ... 18, is
considered by the Braves to be their shortstop of the future. The 6-foot,
185-pounder ... batted .265 in 111 games at low-A Rome in 2006. He had 25
doubles and 23 steals but struck out 91 times. He uses the whole field, and the
Braves think he'll grow into more of a power threat. Andrus has superior skills
with his glove, range and arm. He's probably three years away from the majors
but has a huge upside."
BOS " ... Clay Buchholz ....
named by the Red Sox as their minor league pitcher of the year for 2006. He's 22
and probably will start next season at high-A Wilmington, where he finished last
season with a 2-0 record and 1.13 ERA in three starts. He also had 23 strikeouts
and four walks in 16 innings there. Those numbers were pretty much in line with
what he had done at low-A Greenville before the promotion: 9-4, 2.62, 117
strikeouts and 29 walks in 103 innings. Moving quickly to Double-A and beyond is
a possibility for 2007 as Buchholz already is a polished pitcher with good
command and an outstanding curve to go with a mid-90s fastball and effective
slider and changeup."
BOS " ... Jacoby Ellsbury ...
2005 first-round pick (23rd overall) is extremely fast, a good defender and is
capable of playing every outfield position. An Oregon State product, he has hit
.306 since turning pro shortly after his draft day and finished last season at
Double-A Portland (Maine). Ellsbury worked on his bunting in the Arizona Fall
League and probably will start next season in center field at Triple-A
Pawtucket. When he's ready for the majors, he will create some decisions for the
Red Sox, who have a similar type of player, Coco Crisp, in center field."
Dan Szymborski,
BaseballThinkFactory, has updated his ZiPS projections for 2007 with his
Oakland, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh team reports.
John Sickels, MinorLeagueBall,
has added prospect lists for the D'Rays and the Dodgers.
" ... Delmon Young, OF, Grade A (Seven Skill
player) ... Reid Brignac, SS, Grade A- (Breakthrough season with
the bat) ... Evan Longoria, 3B, A- (plate discipline an
issue?) ... Andy LaRoche, 3B, Grade A- (I really like him as
a hitter) ... Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Grade A- (terrific
all-around young pitcher)."
Doing double-duty,
Koby
Schellenger, at FantasyInfoCentral, reviews the WAS farm and finds a pretty
barren system:
" ... 1. Chris Marrero ... power
hitting outfielder with plenty of tools. Drafted this year out of high school,
Marrero has plus power and great bat speed ... In high school he was a 3B
but played exclusively in left field for the Nationals this year. He has a
strong arm and will likely stay in the outfield."
" ... 2. Kory Casto, 3B/OF ... one time
Nationals Minor League Player of the Year quickly found himself blocked by Ryan
Zimmerman and, after a failed attempt to move him to second, Casto finds himself
in the outfield. He has very good power and excellent plate discipline. Defense
is sketchy but his bat commands a place in the lineup."
25 December, 2006
The merriest ... and, just a little more to chew on over the holidays ...
Mexico - Joakim Soria KC (Rule 5 pick) 5.0 8 5 4 1 5, 2.41 ... Adrian
Gonzalez SD 1-4, 5th homer, .315
Troop movements ... MIL - reported to have signed Jeff Suppan ...
Dan
Szymborski, BaseballThinkFactory, has the OAK ZiPS projection online.
He's about 2/3s through the list. So far, the projections for some of the
kids :
POS AVG OBP SLG AB H 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS
James Loney* 1b .297 .351 .434 512 152 35 4 9 42 65 5 5
Matt Kemp cf .292 .342 .478 538 157 33 5 19 38 116 21 6
Billy Butler rf .292 .339 .447 535 156 36 1 15 35 94 1 0
Kevin Kouzmanoff 3b .286 .342 .465 301 86 19 1 11 23 63 3 2
Howie Kendrick 2b .285 .317 .458 533 152 42 4 14 19 93 14 4
Troy Tulowitzki ss .282 .351 .429 478 135 32 1 12 46 67 6 3
Stephen Drew* ss .278 .335 .467 467 130 25 6 17 37 91 4 2
Lastings Milledge of .277 .356 .436 498 138 32 4 13 52 107 12 11
Hunter Pence rf .276 .339 .506 504 139 27 4 27 48 107 9 4
Alex Gordon* 3b .275 .361 .473 491 135 35 1 20 56 137 15 4
Andy LaRoche 3b .274 .349 .443 467 128 26 1 17 52 80 6 4
Dustin Pedroia ss .274 .347 .394 482 132 33 2 7 49 32 2 3
Travis Buck* lf .271 .331 .439 321 87 32 2 6 28 57 6 2
Chris Iannetta c .269 .358 .465 342 92 21 2 14 44 60 1 1
Casey Kotchman* 1b .268 .329 .409 406 109 27 0 10 34 48 2 1
Miguel Montero* c .264 .328 .430 428 113 21 1 16 37 66 1 2
Daric Barton* 1b .263 .355 .408 434 114 29 2 10 62 72 1 1
Carlos Quentin rf .262 .361 .472 447 117 31 3 19 51 72 5 1
Ryan Braun 3b .262 .321 .440 427 112 27 2 15 33 101 16 5
Josh Fields 3b .262 .336 .445 461 121 28 1 18 50 127 13 5
Joey Votto* 1b .259 .334 .451 474 123 32 1 19 53 110 10 5
Kendry Morales# 1b .258 .302 .400 422 109 19 1 13 26 65 1 2
Felix Pie* cf .257 .304 .401 479 123 25 4 12 31 105 10 8
Cameron Maybin cf .256 .322 .366 383 98 15 3 7 35 110 17 6
Chris Young cf .255 .336 .525 459 117 33 2 29 53 87 15 5
Ian Stewart* 3b .248 .314 .407 460 114 34 3 11 39 87 2 4
Brandon Wood ss .248 .303 .444 520 129 41 2 19 39 166 10 4
Jay Bruce* rf .236 .289 .403 419 99 33 2 11 29 113 11 7
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Rich Hill* 3.65 12 8 31 28 175 148 71 25 56 190
Matt Garza 3.88 13 10 28 28 160 158 69 17 51 124
Philip Hughes 4.06 12 7 31 31 164 164 74 15 58 127
Andrew Miller* 4.11 9 6 27 17 127 122 58 8 58 93
Jeremy Sowers* 4.24 12 8 28 28 176 185 83 18 46 90
Adam Miller 4.27 10 7 24 23 139 137 66 15 48 107
Mike Pelfrey 4.30 5 4 16 16 90 85 43 8 35 71
Kevin Slowey 4.31 6 5 20 19 119 129 57 18 21 80
Chad Billingsley 4.38 10 9 29 28 150 146 73 19 75 130
Homer Bailey 4.50 7 8 27 24 126 120 63 15 66 110
Phil Humber 4.74 4 5 15 14 76 80 40 13 26 52
Zack Greinke 4.76 8 10 28 27 157 175 83 22 42 95
Yovani Gallardo 4.80 7 8 26 24 148 150 79 19 66 111
Alay Soler 4.87 5 6 20 20 109 109 59 13 50 66
Adam Loewen* 4.89 8 11 31 28 171 170 93 14 92 131
Chuck Lofgren* 4.96 9 9 23 23 127 131 70 12 62 74
Luke Hochevar 5.09 7 9 22 22 122 122 69 17 67 101
Hayden Penn 5.44 5 10 22 22 124 137 75 21 47 80
Lance Broadway 5.45 6 8 23 23 147 172 89 26 43 71
Scott Elbert* 5.59 7 11 27 25 132 127 82 20 98 115
Franklin Morales* 5.70 6 11 25 23 139 146 88 19 97 108
Juan Morillo 6.61 5 13 28 28 147 169 108 31 90 98
24 December, 2006
Dominican - Emilio Bonifacio 2B ARZ 2-5, .327 ... Joel
Guzman TB 1-4, 4th homer, .243
Venezuela - Miguel Montero ARZ 1-2, double, .236 ... Gregor
Blanco CF ATL 2-6, .319 ... Alberto Callaspo ARZ 3-6, .270 ...
Carlos Gonzalez ARZ 1-5, walk, .314, .385, .530 with 9 homers,
22-31 BB/K ratio
Troop movements ... CHA - acquired LHP John Danks, RHP Nick
Masset and RHP Jacob Rasner from TEX for RHP Brandon
McCarthy and OF David Paisano ...
John
Sickels, MinorLeagueBall, puts a couple of reviews under the tree with
neither system looking like an award winner.
1 Ryan Sweeney OF 6 Aaron Cunningham OF
2 Gio Gonzalez LHP 7 Kyle McCulloch RHP
3 Josh Fields 3B 8 Chris Carter 1B
4 Lance Broadway RHP 9 Matt Long RHP
5 Charlie Haeger RHP 10 Boone Logan LHP
1 Sean West LHP 6 Jose Garcia RHP
2 Chris Volstad RHP 7 Renyel Pinto LHP
3 Aaron Thompson LHP 8 Brett Sinkbeil RHP
4 Taylor Tankersley LHP 9 Gabriel Sanchez 1B
5 Gaby Hernandez RHP 10 Henry Owens RHP
" ...
Ryan Sweeney, OF, Grade B (great swing but I still doubt his power)
... Josh Fields, 3B, B (developing his tools, but still
strikes out a lot)."
" ...
Chris Volstad, RHP, Grade B (very projectable) ... Gabriel
Sanchez, 1B, B (intriguing and overlooked bat) "
23 December, 2006
Venezuela - Angel Guzman CHN 4.2 3 3 3 1 6, 4.08 ... Alberto
Callaspo ARZ 3-5, double, .262 ... Carlos Gonzalez ARZ 0-2,
2 walks, .317
Troop movements ... NYA - signed first baseman Juan Miranda
...
John Sickels, MinorLeagueBall
rates the MIL farm and sees at least a couple of possible gems :
1 Yovani Gallardo RHP 6 Cole Gillespie OF
2 Ryan Braun 3B 7 Dennis Sarfate RHP
3 Will Inman RHP 8 Manny Parra LHP
4 Jeremy Jeffress RHP 9 Mark Rogers RHP
5 Lorenzo Cain OF 10 Mat Gamel 3B
" ... Gallardo, RHP, Grade A (one of the best young
pitchers in the game) ... Braun, 3B, Grade A- (only question
is how patient they will be with his glove)."
Project
Prospect, in its review of the best 2B prospects for the 2007 season, sees
just one likely rookie starter :
" ... 1. Dustin Pedroia ... combination of David
Eckstein and Mark Loretta ... brings elite discipline (48 BB/27 K; 93.62%
contact ratio) to the plate that figures to improve with each major league
at-bat, and there should be plenty of those to come as Pedroia, 23, will likely
start at second in Boston ... 5-foot-9, 180-pounder hit .305/.384/.426 in
Triple-A Pawtucket before earning a big league promotion in late-August ... .
contact bat will heat up at some point, making him a solid free agent pickup at
some point during the season in mixed leagues. When gauging his fantasy value,
it’s also worth noting that he started five times at shortstop – his natural
position – for the Red Sox after his call-up last season."
USA Today
checks in with reviews of the TEX and FLO farms :
" ... John Danks ... is perhaps
the Rangers' finest pitching prospect since Kevin Brown and Bobby Witt. He has a
90-92 mph fastball, a dazzling curveball and a solid changeup. Danks, 21, went
1-4 with a 7.15 ERA for Double-A Frisco in April, but went 2-0, 3.32 in May and
was 2-0, 2.16 in June, when he was promoted to Triple-A Oklahoma. Then he got
erratic, finishing with a 4-5 record and 4.33 ERA. Overall, he had 154
strikeouts (in 140 innings), the most in the Rangers' system. He has a
professional career strikeout rate of more than one per inning. Danks could
break into the Rangers' rotation by midseason."
" ... Eric Hurley ... a first-round
pick in 2004, was named the Rangers' minor league pitcher of the year for 2006.
In six starts, he went 3-1 with a 1.95 ERA, yielding a meager .168 batting
average for Frisco. He struck out 31 and walked 11 in 38 innings and yielded a
.168 batting average. Hurley has a 93-96 mph fastball to go with a dominant
slider and a solid changeup. He likely will open the year in Double-A, but could
find himself with the Rangers by the season's conclusion."
" ... Chris Volstad ...
first-round pick in the 2005 draft (16th overall) ... the organization's
minor league pitcher of the year for 2006. Volstad, 20, went 11-8 with a 3.08
ERA in 26 starts for low-A Greensboro. In 152 innings, he allowed 161 hits,
struck out 99 and walked 36. Opposing hitters batted .275 against him. The 6-7,
190-pounder throws his fastball in the low-90s and has a biting sinkerball.
Volstad has been invited to the Marlins' spring training camp but will probably
open his 2007 season at high-A Jupiter."
22 December, 2006
The very best to you and yours for the holidays! May there be a .700
slugger and a Sandy Koufax clone under the tree.
Dominican - Joel Guzman TB 2-4, 3rd homer, .248 ...
Fausto Carmona CLE 4.0 3 2 1 3 1, 3.34 ... Jason
Vargas NYN1.0 0 0 0 0 1, 2.86
Troop movements ... PHI - signed catcher Rod Barajas ... CIN - Reds
acquired 1B-OF Jeff Conine from PHI for OF Javon Moran
and 3B Bradley Key, designated infielder Brendan Harris
for assignment ...
Kevin
Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus, reviews the kids in the Cards' system :
" ... 1. Colby Rasmus ... One of many
outstanding high school outfielders from 2005's first round, Rasmus is a long,
loose athlete with both tools and baseball skills. Excellent bat speed and a
frame with room for bulk allow him to project for 20+ home runs annually ...
Plus runner with plenty of range in center field ... problems with lefthanders,
particularly ones with good breaking balls, and can be busted inside ...
In a Perfect World, He Becomes: A center fielder who bats second and puts up
20/20 seasons (or better) annually ... has a high ceiling, and he's already put
up some impressive numbers despite holes in his game."
" ... 2. Jamie Garcia ... arguably the
steal of the 2005 draft. Highly advanced for age and pounds the strike zone with
a low 90s sinker and plus curve. Flashes a good change at times, and mixes all
of his pitches well ... Missing a dependable swing-and-miss pitch in the
arsenal ... In a Perfect World, He Becomes: A middle-of-the-rotation
workhorse ... will start at Double-A as a 20 year old, and could get a
brief major league audition by the end of the season if all continues to go
well."
Adam Loberstein, Project
Prospect, checks in on Travis Buck OAK (who's won an invitation
to Spring Training with the big club) :
" ... Over the course of his four-city, 497 at-bat tour as a
professional, the lefty has posted a .328 average, 10 home runs, and 79 RBI.
While he only managed to put 10 over then fence, Buck did pound out a more than
impressive 53 doubles. Look for this gap-to-gap alley power to transition into
more of a long ball threat as Buck continues to develop ... . has managed a
strong .511 slugging percentage over the course of his minor league career
thanks to his marks as a doubles hitter. The power doesn’t need to develop – it
would be a bonus. Buck has proven himself to be an on-base machine ...
used his speed and arm strength on defense playing as an excellent outfielder.
Look for Travis Buck to bring his five-tool package to a big league stadium near
you sometime soon."
John Sickels, MinorLeagueBall,
rates the OAK farm and he, too, likes Mr. Buck :
1 Travis Buck OF 6 Kevin Melillo 2B
2 Daric Barton 1B 7 Trevor Cahill RHP
3 Matt Sulentic OF 8 Javier Herrera OF
4 Jermaine Mitchell OF 9 Marcus McBeth RHP
5 Kurt Suzuki C 10 Jason Windsor RHP
" ... Buck, OF, Grade B+ (Ethier comparison looks valid to
me) ... Barton, 1B, B (hurt by injury, but what about his power and defense?)"
At
BaseballThinkFactory, Dan Szymborski has the latest of his ZiPS projections
for 2007. It's the Yankees up, a couple of interesting players highlighted
:
Phil Hughes
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 3.24 15 6 34 34 186 172 67 13 57 150
Mean 4.06 12 7 29 29 164 164 74 15 58 127
Pessimistic (15%) 5.05 8 8 26 26 132 144 74 17 56 95
Melky Cabrera
AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .314 .382 .514 162 601 112 189 35 5 25 122 65 59 15 3
Mean .295 .355 .445 157 584 93 172 28 3 18 92 55 67 12 5
Pessimistic (15%) .278 .329 .399 120 446 61 124 19 1 11 56 34 58 6 5
Thanks again to David Farr for his work in compiling our NRI list !
21 December, 2006
Dominican - catcher Carlos Ruiz PHI 2-4, 2-4, .317
... Omar Beltre TEX 4.0 1 0 0 2 3, 2.45 ... Fabio Castro
PHI 3.0 2 1 1 2 2, 1.86
Venezuela - Carlos Gonzalez ARZ 3-5, 9th double, 2 homers (9), 5
RBI (36) ... Wladimir Balentien SEA 1-3, 12th homer ...
Franklin Gutierrez CLE 1-3, 2nd homer
Puerto Rico - Bruce Chen FA 7 3 1 1 3 8 , 5-0, 0.72 in 50 innings
Troop movements ... ARZ - released infielder Andy Green ... MIN -
resigned Rondell White ... ATL - signed infielder Chris Woodward
... SD - re-signed RHP Doug Brocail, claimed infielder Craig
Stansberry off waivers from PIT ... KC - signed RHP David Riske
...
Baseball
Digest Daily has the second installment of its Top 100 - 1 to 50! Alex Gordon,
Phil Hughes, Delmon Young 1-2-3 :
" ... What’s not to like about this guy? You’ll be hard
pressed to find someone who doesn’t love Alex Gordon. He does just about
everything well. He hits for average and power, has great plate discipline and
coverage, runs well, can steal a base, and he’s already an adequate Major League
quality third baseman. Gordon is probably the most exciting minor league player
in the game today, and it will take all the will power in the world to prevent
Dayton Moore and the Royals’ brass from promoting Alex to Kansas City to start
the 2007 season." (Joe Hamrahi)
Daric Barton " ... Many think Barton’s
opportunity has come and gone ... Hopefully Barton
will be fully recovered from an elbow fracture by the start of the 2007 season.
At that time he will still be just 21 years old and ready to return to form as
an on-base machine – last year at triple-A was the first in which his OBP fell
below .410. While Barton hasn’t exhibited a ton of home run abiity, he’s got
decent doubles power and excellent plate discipline (198 walks, 139 strikeouts
over the past 3 seasons). (Scott Edelman)
" ... Delmon Young: Future Hall of Famer? All-Star? Or
mere Average Joe Ballplayer? Despite being ticketed for stardom ever since Tampa
Bay made him the first overall draft choice in 2003 as a high schooler, opinions
on Delmon Young have become more divided in recent months. Critics point to his
decline in on base and slugging averages, not to mention his recent off-field
troubles and start to wonder if Young will be one of dozens of top prospects
over the years to fail to capitalize on their extreme talent base. But make no
mistake, Delmon Young is destined to be one of the best hitters of his
generation. Still just 21 years of age, he had a fine consolidation year at
Durham, batting a healthy .316/.341/.474 while lowering his strikeout rate and
increasing his stolen base efficiency. After improving on these numbers upon
being promoted to the parent team, there’s no reason to expect him to be back in
the minors from this point forward." (Jim Correll)
" ... Clayton Kershaw: Let's see: a 6'3" left lefty
with pinpoint control and an incredible strikeout rate, what's not to love? Last
year in Rookie ball he struck out 54 batters in just 37 innings ... walked just five batters.
And yeah, it was only Rookie ball, but Kershaw is just 18 years old. This guy's
phenomenal." (Ryan Mock)
" ... the amazing Chris Young! ... Until this season, I really believed that
his high strikeout percentage would drag him down enough that he’d be a good -
but not great – ballplayer, despite his fantastic defense (when you’re compared
to Eric Davis and Mike Cameron, you know you’re doing it right on defense) ... For the
season, his range factor was over 3.0. That’s often a misleading stat, and 149.1
fielding innings is far from a significant sample size, but since 2000, only
three outfielders have topped 3.0 while playing full time: Torii Hunter in 2001,
Darin Erstad in 2002, and Mike Cameron in 2003. Using my MLP system (Minor
League Projection), Young looked like a 30% strikeout player in the majors as of
2005. In 2006, after adjusting to park and league, he brought that down to 20%!
That’s the sort of adjustment that vaults him from the range of stats that Mike
Cameron has put up (which would have been better if he’d ever played in a good
hitting environment), to that of Jim Edmonds. Playing in Arizona, expect Chris
Young to put up some simply amazing numbers in his career." (Rob McQuown)
The Mets with some quality at the top of their prospect chart according to
John Sickels, MinorLeagueBall as
he ranks the NYN system :
1 Fernando Martinez OF 6 Deolis Guerra RHP
2 Mike Pelfrey RHP 7 Kevin Mulvey RHP
3 Phil Humber RHP 8 Joe Smith RHP
4 Carlos Gomez OF 9 Mike Carp 1B
5 Jon Niese LHP 10 Alay Soler RHP
" ... Fernando Martinez, OF, A- (tools and
youth, just needs refinement) ... Mike Pelfrey, RHP, Grade A- (I
think the breaking pitch problem is overblown. He had a good one in college and
I think he'll find it again. I am sticking with my guns on this one) ... Phil
Humber, RHP, B+ (Many prefer him over Pelfrey, I like both)."
20 December, 2006
Troop movements ... SF - signed 1B Ryan Klesko ... MIN - it's
official, Brad Radke announces his retirement ... CHN - official, signed
Jason Marquis ...
Dan
Szymborski, BaseballThink Factory, has the Mets' projections posted in the
latest installment of his ZiPs.
On the PIT farm, it's Andruw McCutchen atop the prospect ladder.
Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus, checks out the future Pirates:
" ... 1. Andrew McCutchen ... Dynamic
power/speed combination with one of the quickest bats in the minor leagues and
strength in wrists to hit 20-30 home runs annually in the big leagues. Has
ability to take a walk, and plus-plus speed makes him dangerous on the basepaths
as well. Outstanding defender in center field with a far-reaching range from gap
to gap ... Pirates loved McCutchen's ceiling when they drafted him,
but at the same time, they thought he would be a one-step-at-a-time prospect who
would require patience. Not even the Pirates expected him to reach Double-A
before his 20th birthday, and he'll return there in 2007."
" ... 3. Brent Lillibridge ...
Underrated prospect has no real weaknesses in his game. Very good defensive
shortstop with above-average range, hands and arm. Solid hitting skills
augmented by very high walk rate, surprising pop and excellent base-stealing
abilities ... Power he showed at High-A (two HRs in 201 ABs) is closer to
reality than Low-A line (11 HRs in 274 ABs), though he projects to hit 10-12
annually in the big leagues. Can get out of control defensively at times,
leading to stupid errors ... One of the minor leagues' hidden gems,
Lillibridge might be ready for Double-A."
Adam Miller gets the nod as the cream of the CLE farm as
John Sickels ranks the Indians' kids:
1 Adam Miller RHP 6 Wes Hodges 3B
2 Chuck Lofgren LHP 7 Trevor Crowe OF
3 Brian Barton OF 8 Tony Sipp LHP
4 John Drennen OF 9 David Huff LHP
5 Brad Snyder OF 10 Edward Mujica RHP
With the trade of righthander Jason Hirsh, it's digging deep to fill out the Top
10 in the HOU system. However,
Tim Polko, RotoHelp, finds
some candidates :
" ... 6. Hunter Pence ... Widely dismissed prior
to the season as a top prospect and considered a college hitter merely preying
on younger A-ball competition, Pence emerged as the top position player in the
system this summer. He showed five-category upside and entered the AFL poised to
join Houston's outfield, even posting a .339/.379/.565 performance in 62 at-bats
in Arizona. Then the stunningly mentally inept Texan ... DUI Charges
by Scottsdale police at 3:32 in the morning, ended his season on a horribly
distasteful note. Despite decent MLE averages of .249/.308/.437 that suggest he
could equal Carlos Lee's production by 2008, the Astros rebuked Pence by locking
down Lee for the next six years at a cost of $100M, essentially leaving Pence in
competition ... for no more than two long-term starting jobs."
" ... 9. Troy Patton ... The biggest surprise
here is not that Patton received a second straight mid-season promotion but his
unexpected AFL appearance as a reliever, where he dominated hitters aside from
again allowing too many walks. While I still see a lot to like here, Patton's
strikeout and hit rates continue to decline as he ascends the minor league
ladder, and with a bad groundball rate posed to create increasing problems as he
hits AAA Round Rock and then Houston, he could struggle near the majors.
Hopefully the Astros will give him a few more months of Double-A work, followed
by another mid-season jump to Round Rock and then finishing the season in
Houston before sending him back to Round Rock in 2008 until a rotation vacancy
opens. Patton could demolish that timetable if he begins to echo his A-ball
numbers, however I see little reason to expect him to pitch effectively in the
majors at any point in 2007, leaving me little reason to recommend him in any
fantasy league at this time."
Kevin Slowey? BJ Upton? Answers from
MinorLeagueBaseball :
" ... The Twins are very high on Slowey ... started 23
games in the Minor Leagues last season and went 8-5 with an impressive 1.88 ERA.
He then pitched for Team USA in an Olympic Qualifying tournament before starting
for Triple-A Rochester in the final round of the playoffs. The right-hander
pitched in the Arizona Fall League to try to get near 200 innings on the year,
as the Twins wanted to test his durability. It appears a sign that the club
could call on him if it has any injuries this coming season. If Slowey isn't
needed, I expect him to be a late-season callup to give the talented pitcher
some experience."
" ... Right now, Upton has Rays management pulling out its
hair trying to decide what to do with this incredible athlete whose physical
gifts are envied by all. Unfortunately, he lacks the consistency to make routine
plays defensively. He also seems to have taken a step back at the plate. Players
can get by on potential only so long, and the sands inside the hourglass are
quickly passing for Upton. He is available if the right trade comes along, but
those clubs would be faced with the same question of where to put him. The
coming season is a big one for Upton."
19 December, 2006
Venezuela - Gregor Blanco ATL 2-4, 5th triple & 2-4, .321 ... Carlos
Gonzalez ARZ 2-4 & 3-5, 7th homer, 3 RBI, .312
Dominican - Erick Aybar LAA 2-4, 7th double, .338 ...
Matt Kemp LAD 0-4, .222 ... Radhames LIz BAL, after an
outstanding beginning, second straight poor outing, 1.0 1 2 2 4 1, 2.42
Troop movements ... BAL - resigned Chris Gomez ... TEX - it's
official, signed Eric Gagne ... PHI - signed OF Jayson Werth
... SD - close to official, signed 2B Marcus Giles ...
Carlos Carrasco getting more attention, including the top slot on the PHI chart
as John Sickels ranks the PHI farm
:
1 Carlos Carrasco RHP 6 Michael Bourn OF
2 Kyle Drabek RHP 7 Adrian Cardenas 2B
3 JA Happ LHP 8 Drew Carpenter RHP
4 Josh Outman LHP 9 Justin Germano RHP
5 Matt Maloney LHP 10 Mike Costanzo 3B
Another setback for MIL's 2004 first-rounder :
"
... Assistant general manager Gord Ash said right-hander Mark Rogers is
headed for shoulder surgery after getting a second opinion and a new set of
tests. Rogers ... pitched last season at Class A Brevard County. "In all
likelihood, he will be a surgical candidate," Ash said. "There appears to be no
value to conservative treatment at this point." Ash said Rogers' surgery
probably will be in early January. He is expected to miss most if not all of the
2007 season. " (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)
18 December, 2006
Dominican - Rafael Soriano ATL 1/3 4 2 2 0 0, .9.95 ... Erick
Aybar LAA 2-6 & 4-6, triple, 3 RBI, .336 ... catcher Carlos Ruiz PHI 3-4, 2
doubles & 2-4, dobule, .303.. Kendry Morales LAA 2-4 & 1-4, 8th
double, .265 ... Nelson
Cruz TEX 2-4, 8th homer & 0-3, .271
Venezuela - Gregor Blanco CF ATL 1-3, 2 walks, .311 ... Angel
Guzman CHN 4 5 2 2 2 2 , 3.46 ... Carlos Gonzalez ARZ 2-4,
double, .299
Mexico - a selected few, including some golden oldies :
AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG
Gonzalez, Adrian 52 18 1 0 3 8 6 .346 .426 .538
Spilborghs, Ryan 114 39 8 0 3 18 22 .342 .435 .491
Durazo, Erubiel 191 65 9 0 12 37 30 .340 .457 .576
Garcia, Karim 111 34 6 0 9 14 22 .306 .389 .604
Rivera, Ruben 208 61 9 0 19 28 39 .293 .383 .611
Doumit, Ryan 137 40 6 1 6 20 34 .292 .390 .482
Clark, Howie 127 37 7 1 3 14 8 .291 .364 .433
Cota, Humberto 136 34 6 0 6 22 31 .250 .364 .426
LaHair, Bryan 64 15 2 0 2 13 16 .234 .359 .359
Jacobsen, Bucky 60 14 2 0 6 10 19 .233 .361 .567
Hairston Jr., Jerry 19 2 1 0 0 1 3 .105 .190 .158
PITCHERS G GS IP H R ER BB SO ERA
Dessens, Elmer 2 2 8.0 8 1 1 1 7 1.13
Villarreal, Oscar 11 0 10.2 11 3 2 2 2 1.69
Soria, Joakim 11 11 71.1 46 17 14 19 73 1.77
Cate, Troy 4 2 17.1 12 4 4 5 13 2.08
Bannister, Brian 6 6 36.2 40 16 15 7 29 3.68
Sisco, Andrew 7 7 33.1 30 18 17 16 32 4.59
Gronkiewicz, Lee 18 0 17.0 20 9 9 3 25 4.76
Valenzuela, Fernando 9 9 42.1 51 31 25 13 13 5.31
Troop movements ... CHA - acquired LHP Andrew Sisco from KC for 1B
Ross Gload, signed catcher Toby Hall ... NYA - not not
official, signed LHP Kei Igawa ...
Hunter Pence gets the top rating on the HOU prospect chart as
John Sickels charts the Astros'
and SEA kids:
1 Pence Hunter OF 6 Sapp Max C
2 Patton Troy LHP 7 Gutierrez Juan RHP
3 Albers Matt RHP 8 Estrada Paul RHP
4 Barthmaier Jimmy RHP 9 Perez Sergio RHP
5 Towles J.R. C 10 Paulino Felipe RHP
1 Adam Jones OF 6 Ryan Feierabend LHP
2 Brandon Morrow RHP 7 Chris Tillman RHP
3 Jeff Clement C 8 Eric O'Flaherty LHP
4 Yung-Chi Chen 2B 9 Yorman Bazardo RHP
5 Tony Butler LHP 10 Anthony Vavaro RHP
Orders now being taken for John's
2007 Prospect Book.
David Farr is back! Thank goodness. David is the maestro of
the NRI lists, keeping track of those non-roster players given invitations to
Spring Training. The list is here.,
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