SS Notes - Misc.

 
General Rules

While various private leagues allow a wide variety of roster sizes, there is a 30-man limit for lineups in any week (with the rest of your squad to be listed on your taxi squad).   Whether it's for your lineup vs RHP or vs LHP or defensive substitutions, the players must be those on your 30-man lineup.  (For individual games, there is a limit of 8 pitchers and/or 16 position players.) 

Lineups changes have to be made before any games are played on Mondays (a central feature of the Scoresheet game is trying to predict how your players will perform). 

Real Stats vs Scoresheet Stats (From a 2004 Newsletter)

Last week I said we'd talk some this week about why a player's Scoresheet stats don't exactly match his major league stats.

First off, the player's Scoresheet stats which should match his major league numbers are the 'individual dependent stats', not the 'team dependent' numbers. ERA, hits, walks and strikeouts per inning pitched, batting and slugging average, HRs, etc., are things each individual player does independent (mostly) of his teammates, and are the kind of stat the Scoresheet computer keeps track of. Such things as a pitcher's won-loss record, or a hitter's RBIs or runs scored, depend a lot on the team he is on, and will be a lot different in Scoresheet than in the majors!

The pitchers your hitters face in Scoresheet, and the hitters your Scoresheet pitchers face, do play a large factor in how those players do in Scoresheet. After only 4 weeks (and especially in any one week) you may have faced more than your fair share of hot or cold opponents. The best way to check what type of opponents you've faced is to look at that one line of stats that prints out at the end of your week's games. Those are the real major league stats of your opponents players that week, weighted by how much they played against you.

Another big factor in how your players are doing is how you use them in Scoresheet. For instance, if you had He Sop Choi buried deep on the bench the first 4 weeks of the season, when he hit 9 home runs for the Marlins, and so he got no at-bats for you, then of course you did not get the benefit of those 9 home runs. This means that if you play him full time the rest of the year, he should end up with about 9 less HRs for you than he gets for Florida.

Likewise, if you guessed that Jeter was going to start out hitting horribly, and you did not play him these first 4 weeks (when he hit only .181!), and then you do play him the rest of the season, and if he hits better than .181 in the majors the rest of the season, then Jeter should end the year with a higher Scoresheet batting average for your team than he has for the Yanks. After all, if you are a canny enough manager to bench a guy during the weeks he stinks in the majors, and you use him the weeks he does well, then his overall Scoresheet numbers can be better than his major league numbers. Of course, this is tough to do since we have you mail in lineups before the week starts, which is the whole point of a Monday deadline! For instance, who the heck actually had Jeter benched to start the year? But hopefully you get the point.

Besides simply deciding who to play each week, there are a number of other ways you can influence your guys Scoresheet numbers. Platooning hitters can definitely help their hitting - though it does take away from their total number of at-bats, thus lowering things like HR totals. (HRs, like any other stat, are based on the number hit per a player's at-bat - if a guy gets only half as many at-bats for you as he does in the majors then you'd expect him to end the year with half as many HRs, doubles, etc.) Pitcher's Scoresheet ERA's are influenced by your fielders. Also, hook numbers, along with how your relievers do in allowing inherited runners to score, do affect a pitcher's Scoresheet ERA. How your players perform on the field is the most important thing for your won-loss record - if your players are having a slow start then not even the greatest managing job ever will have you over .500. But if your managerial decisions change your record by just one game every two weeks that is a difference of 13 games over the course of the season - which is a big deal!

What the Scoresheet program does for each at-bat is set up a probability of what the batter is going to do, based on how well he hit in the majors that week, how the pitcher he is facing did in the majors that week, and the fielding range of the players on the field. Then the computer essentially 'rolls dice' to see what happens in that at-bat. (Basically, the better the batter hit that week in the majors, the greater the probability each dice roll will result in a hit - the better the opposing pitcher did in the majors the smaller the probability each dice roll will result in a hit.)

There is some chance (luck) involved in this 'dice roll', just as there is in any game based on probabilities. If because of the 'luck of the dice' your player is performing differently in Scoresheet than he should be, the computer will adjust for that difference in future at-bats or appearances (using what we call 'luck-balancing formulas'). So, if you had a player hit 3 home runs for his major league team, and even though he faced 'average' pitchers in Scoresheet he hit only 1 or 2 HRs for you that week (in the same number of at-bats), he will make up for the lost HR's in future weeks. This also works the other way. If because of the computer 'dice roll' a player does better for you than he should have he will make up for that in a later week also. However, if a pitcher doesn't get his shutout because you had him buried in the bullpen, or if your hitter did not get all the hits for you that he did in the majors because you had him on the bench, then those stats are lost to you.

Scoresheet is a game where you must predict how your players are going to do. If you choose not to play a guy, then his stats that week are lost to you. This 'luck-balancing' is designed to keep track of when your players do differently than they should because of the 'roll of the dice' only. If your pitchers are doing poorly because you have horrible fielders than the formulas will not force him to do better later on. And if your hitters are doing better because you platoon them, then they will not get penalized in future weeks. But if you play a hitter full-time all year then as the season goes on these formulas will guide that hitter's Scoresheet stats towards the numbers he should be putting up. (Just as the more times you flip a coin the closer to 50% percent heads and 50% tails you will get, the longer the season goes on the more the 'dice rolls' in the computer have a chance to balance out!) *NOTE: If in Scoresheet your hitters face a pitcher who got bombed in the majors that week (or face pitcherAAA), then your hitters are supposed to hit better against that pitcher than they did in the majors that week! So, if your team faces pitcherAAA and your hitters hit a couple extra HRs then that does NOT hurt you in future games - since hitters are supposed to hit better against pitcher AAA than against an average major league pitcher those extra hits they get are just what they are supposed to get, and your hitters will not be penalized in future games for those extra hits.

Also, if all of your pitcher's ERAs are higher in Scoresheet than you'd expect (compared to their real life ERAs), then you should look at your player's fielding ranges. Your fielder's range can have a significant impact on your staff's ERA - having a negative fielding range bonus in each game will make your pitchers give up more hits.

(Jeff Barton with another version of the Real vs SS stats, August 26, 2010)

Pitcher ERA is one of a number of things that go into the program's calculation of what happens each at bat. And yes, it has more weighting that calculation than does the number of RBIs the batter has for instance. But ERA is no more important than the batter's OPS - ERA is definitely not the sole determining factor in how many runs a team scores.

I think that many folks think that our program does something like try and determine how many runs a team should score in a game, based on the pitcher's ERA, the batter's stats, and the fielders. But that isactually *not* how the program works. There is nothing in the program that tries to drive a game to a certain score. instead, everything happens at-bat by at at-bat. For each at-bat the program looks at a number of things including the pitcher's ERA in the majors that week, the batter's hitting stats that week in the majors, the fielding range of the team currently in the field, any luck balancing owed that batter or hitter, the situation in the field (number of outs, runners on base, speed of the runner, batter's number of RBIs) and then determines a probability of every action that could occur. Then the program essentially 'rolls dice' to determine what actually happens. (And the probability determines how many of the possible dice rolls are hits, how many are outs, how many are HRs, etc.)

For instance, if everything else is identical (same pitcher, same batter, etc.) but in one scenario there is a man on first and in another game there is a man on second, more of the dice rolls would result in the man on second scoring than result in the man on first scoring. Similarly, if everything is the same in two games (same pitcher, hitter, fielder's etc) and there is a man on first in both games, and in one game the runner is thrown out trying to steal, and in the other game he does not attempt to steal, then there is much more chance of the team without the caught stealing scoring a run that inning.

In other words, how a team sets up its lineup, how often it steals and gets caught, whether it sacrifices or not - in short, all of your managerial strategies - *do* effect the chance of runs scoring. And once again, the program does not try and decide how many runs 'should' score in a game based on pitcher ERA - it simply plays the game out at bat by at bat.

As far as luck balancing, the program adjust player's future scoresheet performances if they have done differently 'than they should have' just because of the luck of the dice. So if a pitcher gives up one more run in Scoresheet than he did in the majors because he is facing a team that has a bunch of successful steals he may not be owed any luck balancing at all - the probabilities may have been such from those steals that he was 'supposed' to give up that extra run. Same thing if he gives them up because he has a lousy fielding team behind him, or because he is facing hitters who had good weeks in the majors. Our program does *not* try and force players to exactly match their real life numbers no matter what - things like opponents faced, and a manager's decisions do effect the probabilities of what is supposed to happen.

Folks such as Dick Craswell, Gary Huckabay, Theron Skyles, etc etc. who ran numerical studies on tons of Scoresheet games/leagues/seasons came to the same conclusion (that manager's decisions matter). And, as others have pointed out, Craswell came up with a success rate of 70% a the break even as to whether a guy will help or hurt you when trying to steal. Though I think some other posters today have added to the discussion by pointing out that all circumstances are not the same - stealing a base in front of a singles hitter is probably more valuable than in front of a HR hitter, and getting caught in front of a power hitter probably hurts more.

Trades & Lineups

When making lineup changes by fax or email, Scoresheet requests money be on account to cover the lineup fees.  For those in perpetual leagues, Scoresheet asks for a $25 deposit for the following season if trades are made involving "next season" draft picks.

" Futures" trades and comebackers are not allowed.  Scoresheet deems it  "highly unethical to make a trade for the playoffs where you agree to either give a player back in the off-season or offer to "even up" the trade in the off-season.  A trade should stand on its own. If you make one of these deals, you will forfeit your trading rights and if you are offered one, please let us know."

"We remind you that if you deliberately send in a bad lineup (bench your better players) to get a better pick for next year, you will lose your first round pick."  

To report a trade, both owners must turn in a trade note with their new lineups (with the players you have traded away off of your lineup, and with any newly acquired players that you want to use listed on your new lineup card.) We do need to receive a note confirming the trade from BOTH owners involved in the trade before implementing the trade. There is no extra fee for trades, just the normal $6 charge for turning in a new lineup card is needed ($5 if you only change one side of the card.)

Rookies

New in 2010, with the merger of SS USA & Canada :

Fewer than 130 career major league at-bats or fewer than 50 career major league innings pitched.

Supplementary Drafts

Effective with the 2009 season, Scoresheet is to hold three supplementary drafts (first week of May, late June and first week of August).  And, in regular SS leagues the June draftees WILL be eligible in the supplementaries. 

Taxi Squad   

Players on your roster who are not listed on your 30 man lineup card are considered your taxi squad.  These taxi squad players will come in to play for you if needed, before we shuffle other players out of position, and before we go to AAA players

For example, if you only have 2 shortstops listed on your active lineup card, and they do not have enough major league playing time to start all your games some week, then if you have a SS on your taxi squad he will start a game before we move a 2B or 3B out of position to start at SS. 

Also, before using a taxi squad player the computer does check to see if any of your 30 players on the lineup card qualify at the position needed - if they qualify there they will be used before the taxi squad player, even if you do not list that position for them on the card.  But, taxi squad players will be used before we move guys 'out of position'. 

Of course, just like any player, a guy on your taxi squad can only appear in a Scoresheet game if he has major league playing time that week.  

When you have a player automatically brought up from the taxi squad they are called up in order of playing time for the season.

If you run out of eligible players at a position, we automatically shuffle positions for you. We'll move players between 2B, 3B and SS; we'll move the player on the bench with the top pinch hit rank to 1B and/or DH; and we'll take the top listed player and move him to OF. (Such shuffling changes do incur the fielding penalties discussed later in the Fielding Numbers section.)  This shuffling only occurs when you have no one else on your team who qualifies at that position. If there are substitute OFers on the bench then naturally we'll move the top listed sub OFer to the starting lineup.

If you are subject to a very large number of injuries, we assign you an anonymous replacement. These replacements, appearing as Catcher (AAA), OF(AAA), Pitcher(AAA), etc., will be roughly .200 (or worse) hitters, or pitchers with an ERA 1.7 times the league average (in 1997 Pitcher(AAA) had an ERA of about 7.75). (AAA) players will bat differently depending on the position at which they appear. (AAA) OFers and first baseman hit about .205, with a .255 slugging percentage, catcher(AAA) hits about .150 with a .200 slugging average, and (AAA) infielders hit about .190, but with only a .220 slugging average. These are the same types of players that are called up from the minors when injuries occur on a major league club. The use of (AAA) players enables your team to continue playing, but certainly decreases your chance of winning games - you should try to get a solid backup with plenty of playing time at as many positions as possible!

Why did SS do this to my defense?

Q :  I had a game this week where the sim put Prince Fielder, who I had listed only at 1B of course, in LF, Corey Hart (2.03, listed at "OF") in CF and Paul Janish (4.78 at SS, on my farm team) at 1B. Why did it do this? Doesn't it automatically create the best possible defense?  For the best defense, the sim should have left Fielder at 1B, Hart in a corner and Janish in CF. Putting Fielder in LF and Janish at 1B, rather than the reverse, cost me .13 in range vs. average.

A:  This happens because the sim does not try and maximize fielding range by trying various possibilities - if it did that it could/would get caught in endless 'what if' loops. Instead the program fills positions one by one, in order of fielding difficulty. And it first uses guys in your starting lineup, then guys on the bench, then pulls guys from your farm system if necessary.. Since Janish was on your farm system he got pulled last, and so filled 1B (the last position filled on the fielding spectrum.)  (Jeff Barton, June 3, 2011)

Run-clumping  (note from the 97 off-season)